The Australian sharemarket lost ground last week, broadly down 0.6%, as a lack of new economic data meant softer commodity prices and a few company reports drove performance. The price of oil particularly affected the Energy sector, where Woodside Energy (-7.8%), Santos (-3.5%) and Beach Energy (-6.8%) fell. Company specific news included miner South32’s (-12.9%) production update, where unexpected policy conditions imposed by the Western Australian EPA on its Worsley Alumina operations was a key concern.
Recent US sharemarket trends continued last week, as the overall market declined, however, smaller companies actually finished ahead. Part of this dynamic was explained by softness in the Technology and Communication sectors, where big names like Alphabet (-6.0%), NVIDIA (-4.1%) and Apple (-2.8%) weakened. Meanwhile, smaller companies particularly benefited from increased interest rate cut expectations. A lower than expected July Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index print, and elevated initial jobless claims, was the catalyst for this change in expectations.
European sharemarkets finished higher last week, though performance was mixed due to company earnings results. Companies most exposed to China, such as automakers and luxury brands, were the main detractors, as reports indicated cautious spending from Chinese consumers. Those most affected included Louis Vuitton (-2.5%), Stellantis (-13.0%) and BMW (-2.2%). More broadly, market sentiment around the UK improved, thanks to positive manufacturing data, though speculation around potential tax increases muddied the outlook. Conversely, Eurozone manufacturing data fell to a five month low, suggesting to some that economic growth in the region was slowing.
The 2Q 2024 earnings season in the US started in earnest over the last few weeks. Earnings seasons occur four times a year and follows the end of each financial quarter (December, March, June and September). Market participants monitor these results, as they provide insight into the health of business conditions, how companies have fared and provide an opportunity for management to adjust earnings guidance. Understandably then, during these periods share prices can be more volatile, as investors incorporate this new information.
So far, company results have been broadly in-line with expectations, though failed to prevent downward pressure felt by US sharemarkets last week. Investors have anxiously awaited results this season, as they wanted to really see whether the ‘soft landing’ scenario was likely, where economic growth does not materially falter amid higher interest rates. This year in the US, this scenario has held up, however, some company results hinted we may not be out of the woods just yet. Adding to this, investors continue to be on the lookout for signs of tangible benefits from Artificial Intelligence (AI), given the enormous amount of spending devoted to the emerging technology.
As usual, earnings season kicked off with reports from major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab. Overall, these results were upbeat, with earnings either in-line or slightly ahead of expectations, supported by stronger financial markets and improving investment banking activity. Charles Schwab was the main sore point, as investors were concerned about weaker operating metrics and lower transactional cash account balances, which led to more costly short-term borrowings.
Financial payments companies American Express and Visa provided insight into the health of consumers. American Express beat earnings expectations and lifted its full-year guidance, though some analysts pointed out revenue was lighter than anticipated. This was supported in Visa’s report as, while earnings were in-line and guidance maintained, revenue was softer and management noted a moderation in spending.
Google’s parent company Alphabet managed to meet expectations set by investors, though included commentary around limited profit margin expansion given increased AI related capital expenditure. Meanwhile, Tesla’s earnings-per-share missed estimates by around 13%, as automotive revenue showed signs of weakness, elevated costs weighed on margins and hinted at the EV maker’s reliance on tax credits.
Other notable reporters included portfolio holdings like D.R. Horton and GE Aerospace. Homebuilder D.R. Horton’s report was better-than-expected, as management stated that while inflation and interest rates remain elevated, the supply of affordable homes was still limited and supported by favourable demographics. Aircraft engine supplier GE Aerospace similarly beat estimates, with strong orders growth and an upward revision to its full year earnings guidance being the key takeaways.
We will monitor the results released in the coming weeks and provide notable updates as the reporting season progresses.
In Australia, the Consumer Price Index print for the June quarter will be closely watched, given its implications for interest rates. Meanwhile, Retail Sales data will give us an update on the health of consumer spending.
Overseas, it is a very important week in the US, where we will see datapoints relevant to consumer confidence and employment, as well as the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting. The overwhelming majority of market participants expect the Fed to keep rates on hold in July, however, it will still be important to get an update on their thinking and any change in tone of their communication around monetary policy.