Weekly recap
What happened in markets
The Australian sharemarket managed to finish higher last week, as positive domestic economic data offset global growth concerns. Stronger retail sales and broadly in-line inflation data supported local market sentiment, however, this was partly unwound by volatility in US sharemarkets later in the week. At the same time, a lower iron ore price put downward pressure on our major miners, while an increase in the gold price pushed companies like Newmont (7.0%) and Northern Star Resources (2.8%) higher. In company specific news, ResMed’s quarterly result surprised with a much better-than-forecast gross margin, however, there were some signs of weakness in its US segment. Additionally, Whitehaven Coal moved to sell a stake of its Blackwater mine to two Japanese buyers, while the takeover contest for Pacific Smiles heated up with another bid.
US sharemarkets lost ground again last week, as growth concerns dampened recent sentiment that had investors previously rotating toward small and cyclical companies. Big tech continued to weaken as well, softened by company reports and guidance that had largely not lived up to expectations. The market had held up well earlier in the week, however, softer employment data late in the week triggered investor concern. This included seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls of 114,000, well below the 175,000 consensus estimate, and an uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.3%. This data was released following the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, so it will be interesting to hear from the central bank given this unexpected weakness in the labour market.
European sharemarkets were also weaker, negatively affected by the US, along with concerns around China’s slowdown and the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Unsurprisingly, those sectors most sensitive to economic conditions softened the most, including banks, automakers and technology related companies. Important news included the Bank of England’s first interest rate cut since 2020, as the central bank reduced its policy rate by 0.25% to 5.00%.
Stock & sector movements
What caught our eye
It was a very important week for markets last week, as critical economic news became available in both Australia and the US. These included the all-important June quarter inflation print in Australia, along with the US Federal Reserve’s July monetary policy meeting.
In Australia, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.8% year-on-year in the June quarter, broadly in-line with market consensus. Meanwhile, the trimmed mean CPI (the RBA’s preferred measure) actually came in lower than expected, falling from 4.0% to 3.9% year-on-year. The local sharemarket was positive on the result, as the ASX 200 Index ended 1.8% higher on the day, given anxiety had grown around the idea that the RBA may have to hike interest rates one more time. The RBA likely also welcomed the result, despite inflation still being too high, as the bumpy path toward the central bank’s target band of 2-3% remained in-tact. With that being said, the news emphasised the distinct situation the RBA now finds itself in, as falling inflation has global peers beginning, or looking to begin, cutting their cash rate targets. For instance, the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada have already reduced their policy rate targets, while the US Federal Reserve is likely to start by the end of the year. For context, markets have not priced-in an interest rate cut in Australia until February 2025, though this has recently been brought forward from May 2025.
Following on then, the US Federal Reserve provided an update on its monetary policy outlook last week. The Fed kept its cash rate target unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, as expected by most. Though, some optimistic investors had thought the central bank might begin to cut its policy rate, given its preferred Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose just 2.5% in June, a significant decrease from 6.8% in 2022 and close to its target of 2%. The takeaway from the meeting was that economic conditions remained resilient, and inflation continued to fall, which increased the central bank’s confidence that policy was working and that an interest rate cut in September was on the table.
Overall, the above news aligned with expectations and supported market sentiment, showing that it can be good when things play out as anticipated, especially during times of uncertainty. The resulting market optimism was short-lived, however, as disappointing company reports and softer employment data on Thursday and Friday unwound gains made earlier in the week.
The week ahead
Everyone will be watching the RBA’s August monetary policy decision and statement on Tuesday this week, as we get an update on the central bank’s thinking around domestic inflation and interest rates. It is expected that the RBA will keep the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%. Meanwhile, the ANZ Indeed job advertisements survey will also show what employer’s appetite for labour was like in July.
Overseas, the China’s Consumer Price Index and Trade Balance will give us a gauge on the economy’s demand levels, while US jobless claims will provide more information around employment concerns triggered last week.
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